Apple expected to beat the Street in September quarter
We recently reported on Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster’s expectations of phenomenal iPhone sales over the next year, and now he’s back with more happy Apple news!
As reported on Macsimum News, Munster looked at preliminary July sales results from NPD Group, did some extrapolation, and came up with numbers showing that both iPod and Mac sales could beat Wall Street’s expectations for the quarter ending September 30, 2008.
Munster’s prognostications show Apple selling 2.7 - 2.9 million Macs, which is up 28% year-over-year from the same period in 2007 and beating Wall Street’s expectations of 2.65 million units. He also expects iPod sales to hit 10.7 - 11.2 million units, which is slightly above Wall Street’s 10.8 million unit guesstimate on the high end.
If Apple happens to hit the high end of these estimates (2.9 million Macs, 11.2 million iPods, 4.1 million iPhones, and a 32% gross margin), Munster calculates that Apple could post earnings per share in the range of $1.19, much better than the Street estimate of $1.11.
Apple will definitely be following this monster news during the earnings call in October.
[via Macsimum News]
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Analyst: 45M iPhones in 2009
Despite issues with the iPhone 3G — less-than-stellar battery life, dropped calls, crashes, etc. — stock market analysts are very bullish on Apple’s product.
BusinessWeek reported that Piper Jaffray tech analyst Gene Munster is forecasting sales of 13 million iPhone 3Gs in 2008, and a whopping 45 million on 2009. That’s considerably higher than what other analysts are proposing, which is in the range of 11 million in 2008 and “only” 26 million in 2009.
The BusinessWeek article also mentioned Apple’s new production goals point to 40 to 45 million handsets between now and August of 2009, which fits into Munster’s forecast nicely. Of course, supply is only half of the picture. Demand for the 3G depends on Apple and carriers fixing issues quickly, decent rate plans from carriers, and killer apps in the App Store.
As Apple rolls into large and previously untouched markets such as Russia and China, forges deals with other retailers such as Best Buy, and works with developers to bring hot applications to the App Store, we’ll see how the forecasts compare with reality.
How accurate do you think the projections are? Share your opinion in a comment. [Read]
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Oh, to have Apple’s cash problems
Not unlike this guy, Apple is going to need avalanche insurance for the mountain of cash that it’s sitting on.
According to BusinessWeek, Apple has amassed $20.8 billion in cash and short-term investments, adding nearly $1 billion each and every quarter. It’s not necessarily odd for a company to have a lot of cash (Microsoft, for example, has $23 billion socked away), but it’s beginning to irk the investors.
If Apple’s stock price continues to rise, everyone’s happy. But if it starts to dip, experts say Apple should consider investments like acquisitions (possibly in the music business) or raw materials and components.
Matt Asay of Cnet is suggesting something probably unpopular with the Cupertino crowd: tax it. Since Apple’s profit margins (as a percentage of sales) are higher than Exxon’s, Apple might fall prey to Congress’ plan to tax windfall profits, if it becomes law.
Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer said earlier this year that “Our preference is to maintain a strong balance sheet in order to preserve our flexibility.” Charles Wolf of Needham & Co. says the company doesn’t need more than $5 billion on hand, but he’d be more worried “if this was a sleepy company with no growth.”
“That’s not Apple,” Wolf said. [cnet]
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Apple announces third-quarter earnings call
Once again, it’s that time of year when tourists flock to the beaches, students leave their books behind and Apple executives describe how they’ve made much more money than the rest of us.
Earlier this week, Apple announced that their third-quarter earnings call will take place on July 21, 2008, at 2 p.m. Pacific time. It’s been an up-and-down quarter for Apple’s stock. It should also be noted that this will be the first report to contain information on sales of the iPhone 3G, assuming they do go on sale on July 11th without a glitch.
We’ll be live blogging the call, so be sure and check back on the 21st. See you then!
[Source: MACNN.com]
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Two-thirds of premium PCs sold at retail are Macs
In the “premium” computer market — at least, for machines sold in brick and mortar stores — Apple holds its own as number one. For the first quarter of this year, Macs accounted for 66 percent of computers that retailed for over $1,000, according to eWeek.
That’s not all: 70 percent of desktops sold at the same price point (or higher) are made by Apple too.
Even though sales at physical stores represent only a fraction of the overall computer market, what’s most impressive for this stat is the year-over-year growth. Apple had 18 percent of the premium market in January 2006. That grew to 57 percent in September 2007, and just six months later rose to 66 percent. In the same eWeek article, Joe Wilcox quotes NPD’s Stephen Baker as saying “Windows notebooks had ‘zero percent’ growth year over year [and] Apple notebooks had ‘50 to 60 percent growth.’”
Of course, overall, Apple makes 14 percent of computers sold at retail. Compare that to Apple’s nadir in the late 90s of around two percent, and you can see how the changes Apple made to its distribution and retail strategy over the last decade have really paid off.
[via Apple 2.0]
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